Medicare Drug Costs Aren't Set to Jump 50% in 2027, but Open Enrollment Still Matters

A warning that Medicare prescription drug costs will jump 50% in 2027 is circulating, urging people not to sit out open enrollment. The figure does not match the projections we found from official and independent sources that track Part D, the prescription drug portion of Medicare. The changes they describe are real, but they are smaller and more specific than a 50% jump.

The most concrete number is the standard deductible for stand-alone Part D plans, which rises from $615 in 2026 to $700 in 2027, an increase of roughly 14 percent. That affects how much you pay out of pocket before coverage kicks in for many drugs. Average premiums are expected to move very little. AARP estimates the average monthly premium for people with original Medicare will rise by less than $1, and CMS, the agency that runs Medicare, projects the Part D total premium will decrease in 2027.

Averages hide a lot of variation. Your own costs depend on which drugs you take, whether they are on your plan's formulary, and whether your pharmacy is still in the plan's network. A plan that covered your prescriptions cheaply this year may not do so next year. That is the real risk of doing nothing: your current plan may renew with new terms that you never reviewed.

Open enrollment runs from October 15 through December 7. During that window you can switch Part D plans, move to a Medicare Advantage plan, or change between Original Medicare and Medicare Advantage. The Medicare Plan Finder on medicare.gov lets you compare plans using your current drug list, and it is worth checking your pharmacy and total yearly cost, not just the monthly premium. Spending an hour on that comparison now is far more useful than hoping the 2027 numbers work out on their own.