Four Years In, This Bull Market Still Has Teeth

Many investors have started to treat the current stock-market rally as an old one, and the age of a rally is a common reason people expect it to fade. Research from Truist Advisory Services pushes back on that instinct. Its review of past cycles finds that bull markets which survive into their fourth year have seldom collapsed soon after, which suggests that the calendar alone is a weak signal of an approaching downturn.

The logic behind the finding is fairly simple. A bull market is a long stretch of rising prices, and those tend to end when something breaks: a recession, a sharp jump in interest rates, or a shock to earnings. Simply reaching year four does not make any of those triggers more likely. A rally that has already absorbed several years of gains can still carry momentum if company profits keep growing and borrowing conditions remain manageable.

Still, the research is not a guarantee. Past patterns describe what has tended to happen, not what must happen, and each cycle has its own causes. Valuations may already be stretched in some sectors, and a rally that has lasted this long can make investors complacent about risk. Anyone reading the Truist view as a signal to pile in should keep that in mind.

For most long-term investors, the practical takeaway is less about timing the market and more about staying positioned sensibly. Age is one piece of the picture, but earnings growth, inflation trends and central bank policy usually matter more. The message from the research is that a fourth birthday is not, by itself, a reason to assume the rally is finished.