Bull Market Turns Four, and Its Fifth Birthday Is Another Question

Monday marked four years since the current bull market began, and the index behind it has delivered a strong run. The S&P 500 has climbed almost 120% since its closing low on October 12, 2022, when a year of selling in stocks, driven by inflation and rising interest rates, finally bottomed out.

The anniversary is a convenient marker, but it is not a forecast. Bull markets are conventionally defined as a rise of 20% or more from a recent low, and this one cleared that bar long ago. What comes next is less clear, and some investors are already cautioning that reaching a fifth birthday may be harder than the first four years were. After a rally of this size, stock prices often look stretched relative to company earnings, and returns tend to slow as expectations rise.

Several factors will likely decide how long the run lasts. Corporate profits need to keep growing to justify current prices. Interest rates and inflation will continue to shape how much investors are willing to pay for stocks. And the broader economy, from hiring to consumer spending, will determine whether a slowdown stays mild or turns into a sharper pullback.

For investors, the more useful takeaway is not the calendar date. Four years of gains do not guarantee a fifth, and they do not signal that the rally is over. Markets have a history of ending bull runs quietly, often before the headlines catch up. Keeping a diversified portfolio and a clear view of risk tends to matter more than any single anniversary.